Latest Publications

Mortgage Insurers Won’t Pay on Bad Loans

Mortgage insurers are rescinding (denying) claims, claiming themselves that the loans were fraudulent and misrepresented to them.

The Argument For Mortgage Principal Reduction

Big surprise that yesterday's blog garnered quite a few responses, not just on the page, but from folks here in DC who are involved in all those closed-door negotiations at Administration office buildings.

Mortgage Principal Writedown Won’t Save Housing

Politicians want to keep borrowers in the homes because that's the compassionate thing to do. The big bad banks just want to cut their losses right? Well, maybe not.

Sweet REIT Rewards

Retail is flailing under job losses and consequent weak consumer spending, and rock-bottom priced housing is forcing rental rates down and vacancies up in the apartment sector. How could REITs in these sectors be performing so well?

Don’t Buy Realtors’ Weather Excuse

Today the National Association of Realtors reported an unexpected 7.6 percent monthly drop in its Pending Homes Sales Index in January.

A Sign of Spring in Housing?

I've been talking to a lot of Realtors this week, who tell me that there are definitely folks out there kicking the tires, but it's all about price point.

More Underwater Borrowers To Get Refis

Despite the fact that government officials continue to tell me that mortgage "walkaways" (borrowers who voluntarily stop paying their mortgages because their loans are worth so much more than the value of their homes) are really not a big problem, today they extended the Home Affordable Refinance Program by a year.

Home Sales: Don’t Blame it on the Weather

Two reports, two sets of bad numbers from the housing market. Both new construction and existing homes sold pretty poorly in January, pushing months' supplies up and putting more downward pressure on prices.

Fannie and Freddie Reform: Not Now

I'm not sure why exactly the hue and cry is rising from Capitol Hill to K Street to focus attention on Fannie and Freddie and their current state of government conservatorship.

The Mortgage Walkaway Number

What exactly is the monetary tipping point for a homeowner, someone occupying the home, hanging pictures on the walls, perhaps raising their kids in the second and third bedrooms, going to the neighborhood block parties...what exactly is the negative equity number that makes them say, "We're outta here."

Commercial Real Estate Getting Better and Worse

Unlike residential real estate, which anyone with a pulse would agree took a rather desperate tumble over the last several years, the existence of a commercial real estate crash continues to be a subject of debate. Put a panel of "experts" up in the Brady Bunch boxes, and there will be a few who will argue that commercial real estate is on the upswing, and, in fact, a great investment.

Housing Bailout Grows

It should come as no surprise to anyone following the housing crash that the government's $75 billion Making Home Affordable program, a.k.a. mortgage bailout, is not all things to all borrowers.

What Mortgage Modifications Say About the Housing Market

Bank of America quadrupled its number of permanent loan modifications in just one month, from 3,183 in mid January to 12,760 today.  It also has 221,395 "active trial modifications," up from 200,287 in the January report.

Housing Crash Crushes Suburban Ideal

Published: Tuesday, 9 Feb 2010 | 3:26 PM ET
Text Size
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter

Peter Gridley | Photographer’s Choice | Getty Images

As the nation’s home builders try to claw their way out of the biggest abyss in the sector’s history, the future landscape is beginning to look a bit different than they once thought.

All those “ex-urban” communities that were supposed to be the place to put shovels and money are falling victim to a changing demographic, or more accurate, a demographic that has been forced to change.

I was just reading a study from the Urban Land Institute’s John McIlwain entitled, “Housing in America:  The Next Decade.”  McIlwain divides housing demand into four major demographics:  Aging baby boomers, younger baby boomers, children of baby boomers (Gen Y) and immigrants.

In the coming decade fewer of the Older Boomers will be moving. Those who have not yet sold their suburban homes find themselves trapped as falling home prices have left their homes “underwater,” worth less than the mortgage(s) on them. It will take years before home prices rise sufficiently to restore their lost equity. Those that can move are no longer flocking to the Sun Belt, choosing instead to move closer to their children, and, more importantly, their grandchildren.

I’ve written a lot about the different expectations of active baby boomers when it comes to housing, how they will need communities that cater more to a 5-9 (am and pm) home life than the previous generation that was fully retired by age 65 and at home 9-5.

Tom Brokaw Reports BOOMERS Click here for program information

Tom Brokaw Reports BOOMERS Click here for program information

The Younger Baby Boomers – The younger cohort of Boomers is facing very different challenges. They have decades before they consider retiring and their children are likely to be still at home, either because they have not left yet or because they have “bounced back.” Many find their suburban homes now “underwater” and even those not “underwater” will be hard to sell. The older Boomers sold their suburban homes to the larger population of younger Boomers looking to move up; the Younger Boomers now have the much smaller Generation X, now in their late thirties to mid-forties, to sell to. Generation X is also made up of smaller households, is a more urban generation, and is facing distinct economic challenges.

This is very interesting to me, as the younger baby boomers are really the move-up market that is so necessary to boost overall home prices.  Luxury home builder Bob Toll claims the luxury home market is back in business, but without the younger boomers, and with a higher percentage of prime jumbo loans defaulting, I’m skeptical. And then there’s Generation Y, which is supposed to be forming new households at lightening speed.  Not so much, thanks to falling incomes and high unemployment.

Generation Y is at the age of highest new household formation but is instead living in their parents’ basement, have doubled and tripled up, or gone back to school to weather the storm.

Mortgages
30 yr fixed 5.05% 5.19%
30 yr fixed jumbo 5.92% 6.02%
15 yr fixed 4.44% 4.66%
15 yr fixed jumbo 5.47% 5.64%
5/1 ARM 4.08% 3.60%
5/1 jumbo ARM 4.57% 3.77%
Find personalized rates:

The good news is that Gen Y will supposedly have a smaller impact on the housing market than Baby Boomers who are such a large cohort.  Still they will be renters for far longer than their parents or grandparents ever were, and again, that means generally they will be in more urban settings. Finally, immigrants comprise about 13 percent of the U.S. population (legal and illegal):

Immigrant populations naturally cluster together. These clusters have moved from the central cities where they tended to gather in the past to the inner suburbs over the last two decades. It is not clear yet whether they will make the jump to the next ring of suburbs. Latinos especially favor larger homes as they have larger, often multi-generational families. This would favor moving to those suburbs with larger home if they can afford them. On the other hand, they also like living closer together, not isolated from one another and with a greater sense of community than most people experience in the suburbs. This suggests that the established cul-de-sac suburbs may not be attractive to them.

Given everything in this particular study, and others I’ve read like it, I tend to think that housing investment dollars over the next decade should be spent in urban and close-in suburban settings.  That’s where Boomers want to be and that’s where young people want to be.  With the lost housing generation in the middle (i.e. me) bearing the brunt of the recession and the housing bust and unable to play in the housing market the way they once did, the big houses in the suburbs are more likely to stagnate in sales and prices.

Questions?  Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

© 2010 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Bookmark and Share
Free Indiana Real Estate Market Report
Make Your Decision On Whether To Buy or Sell On Current Market Data!
Name:
Email:
 
We hate spam and would never share your contact information.
Powered by Optin Form Adder

Congressional Panel “Deeply Concerned” over Commercial Real Estate

I guess I didn't need the Congressional Oversight Panel for the TARP to tell me that commercial real estate was in trouble, but somehow it's a bit more poignant when they do.